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☆ What the new Goldilocks job market means for you
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Business Insider looked at how components of the labor market have settled down, like wage growth. And that more boring but steady labor market could be great news for workers and job seekers. The US could be in a Goldilocks job market. Job switchers are seeing higher wage growth than people staying, according to the 12-month moving average of median wage growth from the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. So what will happen to the Goldilocks job market?

Persons: Nick Bunker, Bunker, —, That's, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter's, " Pollak, Pollak, Job, Julie Su, switchers, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Juliana Kaplan Organizations: Service, North America, BLS Locations: Atlanta

☆ New data shows inflation is still high. Here's how to measure how that affects you
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That may not be a surprise to consumers who are still feeling the weight of higher prices. Inflation — as measured by the consumer price index — rose 3.5% from a year ago and 0.4% for the month. The consumer price index, or CPI, tracks the average changes in prices over time for consumer certain goods and services. Consequently, if your wages haven't increased by that much over the same period, you're more likely to feel the pinch of higher prices. About 60% of households are living paycheck to paycheck, McBride said.

Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi, Brett House, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Aleman, Greg McBride, McBride Organizations: Afp, Getty Images, Columbia Business School, Consumers, Bankrate Locations: Tokyo

☆ Deflation: Here's where prices fell in February 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. is still grappling with higher inflation, government data released this week shows. This "does not mean prices have come down, it just means that they are increasing at a slower rate," said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School. "It is reasonable that people continue to be frustrated by high prices," House said. While inflation is an overall increase in prices, that doesn't mean all prices go up, said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James. "Some prices go up, some prices go down," Aleman said.

Persons: Brett House, —, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Aleman Organizations: Columbia Business School, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: U.S

☆ US wholesale inflation closes out 2023 with 1% annual rate in December
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

US producer prices fell in December for the third consecutive month, bringing a closely watched gauge of inflation to a rate more in line with pre-pandemic times. Wholesale inflation as measured by the Producer Price Index rose 1% annually in December, up slightly from November’s revised 0.8% reading, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On Thursday, the December Consumer Price Index, which is the most widely used measure of retail inflation, showed prices rose annually by 3.4%. “Producers are not facing costs that need to be pushed through to consumers in order to maintain their bottom lines that would reignite inflation,” Rankin said. The US central bank has become increasingly data dependent in its campaign to bring down inflation.

Persons: Price, we’ve, Kurt Rankin, Rankin, “ there’s, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James ’, ” Rankin, “, —, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, PNC Financial Services, CNN, “, PNC Locations: New York, United States

The U.S. economy is on a roll, expanding at a 4.9% annual clip in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. Analysts are looking for the overall index to show prices increased at a 3.4% annual rate and the core index at 3.7%, down from 3.5% and 3.9%, respectively. On Wednesday, Adobe Analytics issued its monthly measure of online prices showing they continue to fall, hitting a 41-month low in September. “Online prices fell for the majority of Adobe’s tracked categories (12 of 18) on an annual basis. On a month-over-month basis, online prices were down 0.6%.”

Persons: ” Joseph Brusuelas, ”, Steve Rick, Raymond James, Eugenio Aleman, “ Organizations: Economic, RSM US, Federal Reserve, TruStage, Labor Department, Adobe Analytics, “ Locations: U.S

"When the 10-year yield goes up, it will have a knock-on effect for almost everything," according to Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School. There are many factors driving the recent spike in Treasury yields, economists said. Most of the recent jump in Treasury yields is due to a so-called term premium, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. Student loans could get pricierThere is also a correlation between Treasury yields and student loans. The government sets the annual rates on those loans once a year, based on the 10-year Treasury.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mark Hamrick, Brett House, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity, Freddie Mac, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James Organizations: Federal, Stock, Fed, Columbia Business School, Treasury, Capital Economics Locations: U.S

"When the 10-year yield goes up, it will have a knock-on effect for almost everything," according to Columbia Business School economics professor Brett House. Why Treasury yields have jumpedA bond's yield is the total annual return investors get from bond payments. There are many factors driving the recent spike in Treasury yields, economists said. Student loans could get pricierThere is also a correlation between Treasury yields and student loans. The government sets the annual rates on those loans once a year, based on the 10-year Treasury.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mark Hamrick, Brett House, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Freddie Mac, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James Organizations: Treasury, Columbia Business School, Fed, Capital Economics Locations: U.S

☆ A recession may still be in the forecast, experts say. Here's how to make sure you're prepared
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Jamie Kelter Davis | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesA recession has been in the forecast for much of 2023. "A recession is obviously going to happen at some point," said Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Those factors may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, Aleman said. Experts say the key is to automate your savings so you do not even see the money in your paycheck. Another advantage to saving now: Rising interest rates mean the potential returns on that money are the highest they have been in 15 years.

Persons: Jamie Kelter Davis, Jack Manley, —, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Aleman, Manley, Barry Glassman, CNBC.com, Glassman, Mark Hamrick, Matt Schulz, Schulz Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Asset Management, National Association for Business Economics, Finance, Federal Reserve, Wealth Services, CNBC's, Bankrate Locations: Chicago

☆ US weekly jobless claims, continuing claims at eight-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Hundreds of people line up outside the Kentucky Career Center, over two hours prior to its opening, to find assistance with their unemployment claims, in Frankfort, Kentucky, U.S. June 18, 2020. Though demand for labor is slowing, overall labor market conditions have remained tight despite higher interest rates. "The U.S. labor market continues to outperform expectations," said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James. The so-called continuing claims declined 21,000 to 1.662 million during the week ending Sept. 9, also the lowest level since January, the claims report showed. Continuing claims remain historically low, a reminder that labor market conditions are still tight.

Persons: Bryan Woolston, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Unadjusted, Jerome Powell, Stellantis, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Kentucky, Center, REUTERS, Bryan Woolston Acquire, United Auto Workers, UAW, Labor Department, Reuters, Reserve, Ford, GM, Chrysler, Workers, Thomson Locations: Frankfort , Kentucky, U.S, WASHINGTON, Indiana, California, South Carolina , New York, Georgia, Kansas, Ohio

☆ Wholesale inflation ticked up last month, exceeding expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Wholesale inflation accelerated for the second month in a row, mirroring a similar trend in the Consumer Price Index report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. The Producer Price Index, a key measure of price changes at the wholesale level, rose to 1.6% from 1.3% for the 12 months ending in August. Stripping out the more volatile categories of food and energy, core PPI rose 2.2% on an annual basis in August, in line with economists’ expectations. The PPI is a closely watched inflation gauge, since it captures average price shifts upstream of the consumer. But this week’s inflation data is unlikely to push the Fed to raise interest rates at its meeting next week.

Persons: Price, uptick, ” Raymond James ’, Eugenio Aleman Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, PPI, July’s, Thursday’s PPI Locations: New York, July’s

☆ The Fed’s preferred inflation measure stayed high in July — and consumers are continuing to spend
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —US inflation may have remained elevated in July, but consumers just wanted to have some fun. It’s the strongest monthly spending gain since January; however, underlying data indicates this type of activity may be on borrowed time. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed that prices increased 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.3% annually. Economists were expecting monthly increases of 0.2% for the headline and core indexes and 3.3% and 4.2%, respectively, for the annual numbers. Even when adjusted for inflation, spending surged in July, rising by 0.6% from the month before.

Persons: ” Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, “, ” Gregory Daco, EY, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Wells, Shannon Seery, Wells Fargo, ” Seery, ” Daco, Powell, Jackson, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, New Commerce Department, Federal, Commerce Department, Amazon’s, PCE, CNN, “, of Labor Statistics Locations: Minneapolis, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ The Fed's next move after raising rates to fight inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some investors are betting on rate cuts as soon as early next year, perhaps on expectations that the economy might soon deteriorate. If unemployment spikes because of higher interest rates, for example, the Fed would likely cut rates to stem job losses under its mandate of maximum employment. The Fed’s tough talk has rattled the bond market, helping push up long-dated yields. In addition to the possibility of cutting rates because of an economic downturn, the Fed could also cut rates if inflation slows too much. “If the Fed sees that inflation goes below the 2% target, they could start decreasing interest rates, but I don’t think they are going to start decreasing interest rates until that happens,” said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James.

Persons: there’s, Rather, Austan Goolsbee, Mike Hackett, they’ve, ”, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Melissa Brown, China’s ‘ Lehman, Laura, Mengchen Zhang, Technology —, Zhongrong, Read, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Kansas City Fed’s, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Treasury, Nationwide, CNN, Fed, Service, KBC Corporation, Xianheng, Science, Technology, National Association of Realtors, Body, Nvidia, Kansas City, Global, US Commerce Department, Labor Department, Central Bank Locations: Washington, “, China, BJ’s, Abercrombie, Kansas

☆ Strong services costs lift US producer prices; inflation expectations dip
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some said the downgrade to June's data meant the rise in the PPI last month was in line with expectations. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 0.8% after gaining 0.2% in June, boosted by a lower base of comparison last year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices were unchanged last month after falling 0.2% in June. In the 12 months through July, the so-called core PPI increased 2.7%, matching June's rise. As with all the July inflation data, the pick-up in the annual core PCE rate is due to unfavorable base effects.

Persons: Bill Adams, Will Compernolle, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Consumers, University of, CPI, Fed, Thomson Locations: August WASHINGTON, Dallas, U.S, New York, disinflation

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for July, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

July's CPI report was "better than we were expecting," said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James. Nearly all of the monthly inflation increase came from shelter costs, which increased by 0.4% and were up 7.7% compared with one year ago. Despite rising oil costs, energy prices increased just 0.1% in July and food increased 0.2%, according to the bureau. However, there was relief for used vehicle prices, which dropped by 1.3%, and medical care services, which were down 0.4%. 'Jumping oil prices' is a threat to inflation targetwatch nowMillions of households are 'stretched financially'Despite falling inflation, many Americans are still feeling the pinch of higher prices.

Persons: July's, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, it's, Aleman, Greg McBride, It's Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, July's CPI Locations: U.S

☆ US job openings at more than two-year low but still elevated
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

There were 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person in June, little changed from May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.610 million job openings. Reuters GraphicsThere were an additional 136,000 job openings in healthcare and social assistance, while vacancies increased by 62,000 in state and local government, excluding education. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.8% in June. ISM manufacturing PMIIt has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Employers, Treasury, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Economists, ISM, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, . U.S

☆ Many Americans fear a recession as severe as 2008 could be coming. Here’s what experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

To that point, 68% are expecting a recession in the next six months, and 80% of those respondents expect it to be severe. Experts weigh in3 reasons it can be smarter to rent, even if you can buy Yet, predictions from various experts are not as dire. watch nowAt Raymond James, the current forecast calls for a "very, very mild" recession, according to chief economist Eugenio Aleman. Raymond James is predicting a 1.3% growth rate for 2023 and 0.6% for 2024 — which coincides with the firm's forecast for a "very, very mild recession," Aleman said. To cope with high inflation, Nationwide's survey found more than half of respondents are eating out less, with 54%.

Persons: Jamie Grill, We're, Kathy Bostjancic, it's, Raymond James, Eugenio Aleman, Aleman, Nonfarm, —, Gray, Tang Ming Tung, Bostjancic Organizations: Finance, Nationwide, U.S . Department of Labor, ADP, Employers, Challenger, Federal Reserve, Getty, Auto Locations: U.S, American

Washington, DC CNN —New home sales surged in May, as buyers looked to new construction as an alternative to the low inventory of existing homes for sale. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell and buy another home at a much higher rate. Sales of existing homes have been down for the past few months, while new home sales have been rising. Mortgage rates reached as high as 6.79% at the end of May as uncertainty moved through the financial industry due to the debt ceiling standoff. This increase in mortgage rates cooled mortgage applications.

Persons: “, ”, Nancy Vanden Houten, Ryan Sweet, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, ” Aleman Organizations: DC CNN, US Department of Housing, Urban Development, Census Bureau, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington, Northeast, South, West

☆ The job market held up in May. But the Fed may have already decided to pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. The labor market and signs of future disinflationThe May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done.

Persons: That’s, Joe Biden’s, ”, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, “, ” Harker, It’s, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, you’ve, you’d, Dave Gilbertson, hasn’t, Ben Bernanke, ” Jack Macdowell, Louis President James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed’s, Louis, Jerome Powell, there’s, Ian Shepherdson, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Association for Business Economics, CNN, Employers, of Labor Statistics, BLS, UKG, The Palisades Group, Hawkish Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Fed, Pantheon Locations: Washington, Washington ,

☆ What the banking crisis means for your job
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed’s latest economic projections, released on Wednesday, were largely in line with those from its last forecast, in December. “We are in a situation with inflation elevated and now a banking crisis on top of that,” Brusuelas told CNN. “I think that the Fed’s going to move toward an above 5% unemployment rate forecast, either in June or by September,” he said. “But the costs of failing are much higher.”A new wild cardThen there’s also the scenario that the Fed could get an assist from an unlikely bedfellow — the banking crisis. I do think the odds of a recession have increased in the wake of this banking sector crisis,” he said.

☆ 41% of adults are preparing for a recession. It's time to stress-test your income, advisors say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Yet many Americans — 41% — have taken steps to prepare for a possible economic downturn, according to a survey by Morning Consult. Still, there are a few steps advisors say you should take now to make sure you are prepared to weather a downturn. Barry Glassman president of Glassman Wealth Services"Stress-test your income against your ongoing obligations," Glassman said. The upside for conservative investors is they are now able to get higher interest rates on their cash. Reduce your debtsHigher interest rates mean consumer debts are climbing higher.

☆ U.S. core capital goods orders post largest gain in five months; shipments surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Dan KoeckSummarySummary Companies Core capital goods orders increase 0.8% in JanuaryCore capital goods shipments surge 1.1%Durable goods orders drop 4.5% on aircraftPending home sales increase 8.1% in JanuaryWASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods increased by the most in five months in January while shipments of those so-called core goods rebounded, suggesting that business spending on equipment picked up at the start of the first quarter. These core capital goods orders dropped 0.3% in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders edging up 0.1%. Core capital goods orders increased 5.3% on a year-on-year basis in January. Shipments of core capital goods bounced back 1.1% after declining 0.6% in December.

☆ As new data shows inflation rose in January, here's what consumers can expect next
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While the inflation rate is poised to subside this year, "it will not be a straight line," Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman told CNBC.com at the time. The Federal Reserve is tasked with getting inflation under control, while trying to avoid a deep economic recession. What the latest inflation measure showsThe personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCEPI, is the central bank's preferred measure as it seeks to bring inflation down to a 2% target. Based on Friday's data, it's "almost a certainty" the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points in March, and maybe even higher, Luther said. A period of below 2% inflation would be needed to see prices subside back to where they were, Luther said.

☆ Economists still worry recession could be on the way. But here's how a soft landing may still be possible
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"We are still on the path to lower inflation rates," House said. Economists said they still expect a recession following the new January inflation data. But the Federal Reserve lacks tools to prompt that area to cool off, he said. The new data shows slowing disinflation, he said, while the Federal Reserve will probably have to hold rates higher for longer. A 'Goldilocks scenario' could bring a soft landingThere is still hope, however, that the central bank may execute a so-called "soft landing," according to House.

☆ Here's the breakdown of the inflation report for January — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

High inflation has followed the U.S. economy into 2023, as consumers continued to see high prices in January. Inflation rose 0.5% for the month and 6.4% over the past 12 months, according to consumer price index data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. Both results were higher than some economists' expectations, which had predicted 0.4% for the month and 6.2% year over year. Almost half of Americans think we're already in a recessionThe CPI measures the average change in consumer prices based on a broad basket of goods and services. Other areas that saw a monthly decline in prices include used cars and trucks, medical care, and airline fares.

☆ Latest weekly jobless claims jump to 240,000
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —First-time weekly claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 240,000 for the week ended November 19, according to data released Wednesday by the Department of Labor. Alemán said he’s looking for signs of a broad-based increase in claims from other industries, in which workers aren’t typically covered by severance payments. Weekly jobless claims are volatile – especially around the holidays – and frequently revised, economists for Oxford Economics wrote in a note Wednesday. “Therefore, we don’t read too much into the larger-than-anticipated drop in claims,” they wrote. On average, weekly initial jobless claims have been below 215,000 this year.

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